Allen Robinson to Bears among best free-agent wide receiver fits

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Allen Robinson to Bears among best free-agent wide receiver fits Published: Mar 13, 2018 at 09:41 AM Matt Harmon *With some of the hottest available names agreeing to contracts ahead of the official start of free agency, Matt Harmon considers how each new receiver-team pairing will work, ranking them from the best fit to the worst. * 1) Allen Robinson to Chicago Bears worth $42 million, with roughly $25 million guaranteed. No team had a more glaring hole on the wide-receiver depth chart heading into free agency than the . Chicago was set to return a cast of unproven entities with a series of questions about their health. A big move at the position was destined to come. Thursday morning, that move came. NFL Network Insider Ian Rapoport reported that with the when free agency officially opens on Wednesday. The will ink a No. 1 wide receiver for young QB Mitch Trubisky, while Robinson joins a team ready to make him a key piece in its offensive evolution. Last season, the fielded an offense stuck in the mud of an era long since gone by in the NFL. Ultra-conservative pa sing supplemented the run-first, grind-it-out approach favored by John Fox-coached teams. Chicago decided to hit hyperdrive and accelerate into the 21st century with a pair of coaching hires. The team tapped former offensive coordinator Matt Nagy to be its head coach and play-caller. Nagy brought former Oregon head coach Mark Helfrich to sit at his right hand as offensive coordinator. Both men were known for up-tempo, progre sive spread offenses at their previous stops. The way Nagy and Helfrich approach offensive design is a major reason why the Robinson signing is a tremendous fit. One of the biggest culprits in Robinson's down 2016 season lied in where he was targeted. Far too many of his 151 targets came on low-percentage throws deep down the sideline, as Next Gen Stats shows in the chart below. Allen Robinson's 2016 target chart from . Didn't get enough work over the middle, too many low-percentage targets along the sideline Matt Harmon (@MattHarmon_BYB) The lack of use in the middle of the field caused over 50 of Robinson's targets in 2016 to come on plays where he had le s than a yard of separation. That's the most for any wide receiver over the last two seasons. If Nagy designs a similar offense to the one employed by the during his tenure as offensive coordinator, that will not be an i sue in Chicago. As Next Gen Stats quantifies in the chart below, no team created more space for its wideouts than Kansas City the last two seasons. Update to the chart I posted Thursday: Average yards of separation for all WRs at the QB's release for 2016, 2017 and the difference between years Matt Harmon (@MattHarmon_BYB) While the 2016 ranked 30th in wide receiver separation at the point of the quarterback's release, the led the league with 3.63 and 3.59 yards the past two seasons. Robinson should find far more high-percentage targets coming his way in Chicago. Creating more space with "layup throws" for Trubisky was already going to be a priority for the in 2018. Most expect them to follow the Sean McVay plan. As a rookie in 2016, 's tight-window throw rate was a league-high 25.9 percent. In McVay's first season at the helm in Los Angeles, that figure came down to 14.3 percent (31st). In 2017, Trubisky finished 13th in tight-window throw rate (18.8 percent). That went poorly, with a 27.3 pa ser rating. It Jacob Trouba Jersey 's an easy comparison to make, and a similar plan could set Trubisky on the same rebound path Goff strolled down in his second season. Nagy and Helfrich were already set to create a more favorable offense for their quarterback with their congruent spread-offense philosophies. Now they've found a No. 1 wide receiver who is up to the task in a sisting their efforts. The move is only made better by how desperately Robinson also needed to find a team ready to use his talents in a more efficient manner. 2) Albert Wilson to Miami Dolphins The telegraphed for almost a year that they were ready to sever ties with . The move finally came to pa s Friday, when Landry was sent packing to Cleveland for a pair of draft picks. Shortly thereafter, Miami identified a replacement for Landry in former pa s catcher . The one-time undrafted free-agent signee enjoyed career highs in catches (42), yards (554) and touchdowns (three) last season as the ' primary slot receiver. He will slide right into Landry's vacated position. The way the deployed Wilson last season was nearly identical to how Landry was used in Miami. Both players function in the same areas of the field, as Next Gen Stats shows us. Average yards of separation: Wilson, 4.1; Landry, 3.2.Intended air yards on targets: Wilson, 6.4; Landry, 6.4. Wilson was also a valuable player with the ball in his hands last season. Next Gen Stats developed a metric that measures yards after the catch adjusted for the separation a receiver has when targeted. In other words, receivers who beef up their YAC totals on "wide open" targets in space are dinged, and players who create more YAC are highlighted. Wilson ranked sixth-highest among wide receivers last year, averaging 1.91 separation-adjusted YAC per reception. E sentially, the found themselves a steeply discounted version of Landry. Wilson will sign a three-year, $24 million contract with the , while Landry carried a $16 million franchise-tag cost with him to Cleveland. While he might not approach the 100-catch totals Landry annually pushed for in Miami, Wilson will provide a great return on that investment. 3) Sammy Watkins to Kansas City Chiefs for $48 million, including $30 million guaranteed at signing. Already laden with playmakers , and , the added another piece to ' offense by agreeing to a deal with . On Tuesday morning, that the three-year deal will come with $30 million guaranteed at signing. It's a hefty commitment to taking another step offensively. Watkins' 2017 season with the was widely viewed as a disappointment from a surface-level perspective. However, his 93.1 pa ser rating when targeted on tight-window throws was impre sive. Operating in tight coverage was already a strength of the ' entrenched top wideout; quarterback had a 99.0 pa ser rating when throwing to Hill in tight windows. Hill developed true No. 1 receiver ability last season after operating as a gadget player in his first pro campaign. Yet, the still maximize his value by moving him acro s the formation and locating him on downfield targets. Watkins, on the other hand, will fill in as a traditional X-receiver. Over 78 percent of his targets last season came when he lined up out wide, and he had a 122.2 pa ser rating on those throws. He's also a better target on short-area throws than given credit for, with a 122.6 pa ser rating on targets traveling 10 or fewer air yards. Watkins' ability to offer a complementary skill set to Hill reveals the true reason for this signing. The fit works, with the move getting downgraded only because of the cost, which was slightly on the pricey side. 4) Taylor Gabriel to Chicago Bears Four-year deal. The were justifiably not content to just add Robinson to the wide receiver room. After securing the top outside wide receiver on the market, they turned their sights to former big-play weapon . "Good Morning Football's" Peter Schrager that Gabriel will head to Chicago on a four-year deal. As with the Robinson agreement, this is another move that shows head coach Matt Nagy is committed to constructing an offense akin to what the ran the last few seasons. Gabriel fits in well with Nagy's brand of creative spread attack that provides space for the point-guard quarterback. In 2016, when he was last paired with another one of the NFL's top innovative minds, Niners coach and former offensive coordinator Kyle Shanahan, Gabriel averaged 3.2 yards of separation on his targets. He'll also provide the team with a player who can win in the open field. Gabriel ranked ninth among wide receivers last year, averaging 1.49 adjusted YAC per reception. This Next Gen Stats metric shows which wide receivers gain extra yardage beyond just what they're expected to get based on Artemi Panarin Women Jersey the separation they had when thrown to. The hope that Gabriel and tight end will create matchup problems for teams in the short to intermediate areas, while Robinson dictates coverages as the No. 1. The move is a tremendous fit. Chicago's offense is already vastly improved over where it stood a mere 24 hours ago. 5) Paul Richardson to Washington Redskins Five-year deal for $40 million, with $20 million in guarantees. The clearly needed to upgrade the wide receiver position, with and being the only two players on the depth chart with any tangible promise. The team swung big, that they are expected to sign former receiver to a five-year, $40 million deal. Richardson broke out in 2017, playing 16 games for the first time in his pro career. Despite a twice-torn ACL being part of his injury history, Richardson remains a lethal downfield threat. The former second-round pick hauled in seven deep balls for 275 yards and three scores in Seattle last year. He'll join another great deep threat in Doctson, who, with Richardson, was in the top 13 in of deep threats. While that might cause some to worry that their skill sets are redundant, Richardson's presence as the X-receiver should help Doctson avoid constantly running into No. 1 corners in pre s-man coverage as he looks to orchestrate his own breakout. Washington's move to sign another vertical receiver signals it's looking to make sure 's 2017 season was not an outlier but a sign of the future. Smith, who will take the reins at QB as a result of the trade Washington agreed to with Kansas City in January, led all quarterbacks in deep-ball yardage (1,248) and pa ser rating (134.7) by a decent gap. Doctson and Richardson operating on the outside will give him a fighting chance to at least push for the top 10 in 2018, even if a No. 1 encore is unlikely. Richardson's addition is unlikely to change the course of Washington's pa sing offense in the way an addition like might have. But he will solidify their three-wide receiver set. The move will be judged by Richardson's ability to stay healthy and help Doctson unlock his potential with the tactical leverage his deep speed provides. 6) John Brown to Baltimore Ravens Few teams entered free agency with such a dire need at wide receiver as the . already hit the open market. was a disappointment in his first season with the team and Wednesday. and combined to catch 28 of 73 targets last season. To patch up the leak, with former wideout and former Washington receiver . It feels like a lost age, but at one point, Brown looked like one of the prime budding superstars in the NFL. Ever since his breakout 1,000-yard campaign in 2015, have derailed his progre s at multiple turns. If the are going to get a starter out of this dice roll, the first step will be Brown showing that a change of scenery and medical staffs can get his health back on track. Brown showed flashes of his ability in the last calendar year. Primarily a vertical threat, Brown averaged 14.9 and 15.7 air yards on his targets over the last two seasons, respectively. Despite that, he's still managed to consistently get open, averaging 3.0 and 2.8 yards of separation in 2016 and 2017 on all his routes when the quarterback releases the ball. Brown is a marvelous vertical receiver, but when he's healthy, he's so much more. This is a precise route-runner who can create separation acro s the route tree, not just deep patterns. Quarterback 's downfield pa sing prowe s has eroded as his career has gone on. He ranked 33rd in deep-ball pa ser rating last season, with a paltry 40.2. If Brown returns to form, Filip Chytil Jersey he's just the type of wideout to a sist the aging pa ser. Knowing whether Brown will ever return to form is anyone's gue s. But taking the chance to find out is more than worth it for the . 7) Danny Amendola to Miami Dolphins Two-year deal for $12 million, with $8.25 million in guarantees. Well, the always-eager-to-spend will drop some of the money they saved from swapping in for by signing . In from New England, the will have acquired yet another slot receiver. Miami obviously wanted to revamp its wide receiver room, and the are on their way to doing so. Yet, it's worth wondering if they're bringing in two players who are both most effective when used on the interior. Amendola saw 87 percent of his targets when lined up in the slot last season. Amendola is a solid role player who came up huge in clutch moments for the during his time there. Perhaps Adam Gase just wants him in a young wide receiver room as a stabilizing veteran presence. But Miami still doesn't have a true No. 1 wide receiver to dictate coverage on high-leverage outside routes and win contested pa ses. It appears the organization's holding out a last string of hope that can still be that player. However, the ' quarterbacks posted a miserable 14.9 pa ser rating on tight-window throws to Parker last season. This article has been reproduced in a new format and may be mi sing content or contain faulty links. Please use the Contact Us link in our site footer to report an i sue.
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